Nagelsmann test for United

Its the top of the table clash in group H between Manchester United and RB Leipzig. Leipzig coached by the sensational Julian Nagelsmann who has consistently broken records of being the youngest coach to achieve notable firsts including managing 100 Bundesliga matches and make it to the semi-finals of Champions' League last season. Despite losing their star striker Timo Werner he has coached the club to top the Bundesliga after 5 matches ahead of fancied Bayern Munich. And he is just turned 33!

Players like Serge Gnabry the treble winning Bayern Munich winger are in awe of him after having specifically asked to work under him at Hoffenheim despite completing his dream move to go out on loan to improve his overall game saying "Julian Nagelsmann fascinated me... their style of play appealed to me, it was so attacking." In last season's Champions' League campaign Gnabry scored six goals against London opposition in Tottenham and Chelsea.

Another player from his current team is perhaps the most sought after defender in Europe in Dayot Upamecano. He was crucial in winning the quarterfinals against Atletico Madrid. Previewed by Statman Dave in April as one whom Manchester United should pursue before he signed his contract extension. Given that Dave appears regularly on United's social media channels to preview matches, the Red Devils would have given him a serious consideration. It still beggars belief that if United were not going to sign a 100 million player during the pandemic, Upamecano at 40 million would have been perfect foil for Harry Maguire. As it turns out Victor Lindelof though unusual in his ways has been more effective partner to Maguire and even without the skipper shepherded the defense against PSG in Paris very well that also saw Axel Tuanzebe being unfazed against Kylian Mbappe on European stage.

Nagelsmann makes effective changes to system during the game and by substitutions means Solskjaer would need to be more nimble to respond which translates to requiring players of high caliber in Paul Pogba, Juan Mata and Donny van de Beek on the field to support Bruno Fernandes. Solskjaer has tended to start cautiously and then use second half substitutions to force the result which did not work against Chelsea unlike Newcastle and PSG. To get an extra man in midfield either United switch to back four, or drop one of Fred or McTominay. 4-5-1 would seem ideal but neither Fred or McTominay have the vision to control the game but effective to shield the defense, nor Nemanja Matic the legs. 

Four at the back will be preferred as Bundesliga might be more akin to Premier League than Champions' League. With Alex Telles able to provide crosses to the strikers and Axel Tuanzebe's pace to thwart counter-attacks, Solskjaer might be tempted to drop Luke Shaw. Tuanzebe would need game management to avoid injury. Fans would want a system to play Fernandes, Pogba and van de Beek together but Solskjaer might chose to not experiment in the middle of crucial run of games that includes Arsenal and Everton next and wait until United face West Brom. Will Donny van de Beek start due to the fan and media frenzy? Not likely. He certainly has more capability than most players except Fernandes and Pogba, great choice to come on as sub. Goes to show the squad depth at Old Trafford now. Rather Mason Greenwood might start on the right as Mata played against Chelsea last Saturday. Meaning Anthony Martial on the bench.

Win for Leipzig will raise stakes of Nagelsmann when a vacancy at a big European club opens up. His mentor Ralf Ragnick was interviewed by Ed Woodward for director of football role and said the following much of which isn't wrong "There is a lot of space for a vision for United,... Since Sir Alex [Ferguson] left they were underperforming... At any club, if you cannot get the right players, then you should at least not sign the wrong ones... Then you must have the best possible coaches to develop these players... You can look at the money that team has had available in the last five years and say there has been an underperformance."

de Gea(GK), Wan-Bissaka, Telles, Lindelof, Maguire, McTominay, Fred, Pogba, Fernandes, Greenwood, Rashford

Confident United look to pick their first points at home

Buoyed after another "We'll always have Paris" win Manchester United welcome Chelsea in the Premier League as they seek their first points at Old Trafford after losing both their home games so far this season. Will Solskjaer persist with back three? Will captain Harry Maguire be brought back? Will Edinson Cavani make his debut? Of the two club legends Solskjaer and Lampard who will outlast the other in their favorite dugout's? United won the double last season over Chelsea including opening day 4-1 win and beat them in the League Cup 5th round before losing in the FA Cup semi-final by dropping the influential Paul Pogba.

Following end of their two window transfer ban last February, Chelsea have spent the most in this summer's window signing Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Hakim Ziyech, Thiago Silva, Ben Chilwell, Edouard Mendy, Malang Sarr for massive outlay of 222 million drawing envy of most other club fans worldwide but lost their most effective player and penalty taker in Willian of Brazil. That's six potential changes to their starting XI inducing fair bit of unpredictability in the results losing 0-2 to Liverpool, thumping Crystal Palace 4-0, drawing 3-3 with both West Brom and Southampton. Three different combinations of centre-half's and three different keepers (Arrizabalaga, Caballero and Mendy) have been used in the four matches, highlighting the area causing most distress in their ranks. Goal scoring though has not been a problem with 8 different players contributing 10 goals including a brace by Timo Werner in the last match.

United announced their full year results this week. As usual the key points highlighted the player acquisitions, global partnerships and sponsorships, and football results in that order not the reverse keeping in mind its the PLC first and football club next. Broadcasting revenues declined by 41.9% to 140 million from 241.2 million, made a loss of 23.2 million compared to profit of 18.9 million a year before, cash equivalents declined 83.3% from 307.6 million last year to 51.5 million, net debt increased 132.9% from 203.6 to 474.1 million this year. Club will not be providing EBITDA guidance for 2021 fiscal year due to the uncertainty resulting from covid-19 pandemic. They are negotiating to extend the shirt sponsorship deal with General Motors (Chevrolet) by six months to 31, December 2021. Within a year of current contract expiring usually the next deal in announced which has not been the case. While it can be argued that club are waiting for return of booming economy to negotiate a new deal to avoid the risk of agreeing a lower one considering the shirt sponsorship is the most important, lucrative and long term in nature. Despite the pandemic club paid dividends mostly to Glazer family to the tune of 23.2 million almost same as last season, this is despicable.

Solskjaer got all the big decisions and tactics right to win in Paris. Clamor of starting the excellent Axel Tuanzebe will only grow after his pace efficiently nullified Kylian Mbappe. Perhaps adequate recovery after injury that kept him out for 10 months be more prudent. Harry Maguire might be back to lead the side after his impressive header led the comeback against Newcastle to win 4-1 in the last league match. Crosses from the wings has been sorely missed at United that Alex Telles showed he can rectify. Match fitness of Shaw and Telles might decide the left back slot. Brandon Williams having played in the U23 game will miss this match day squad.

Scott McTominay and Fred have been industrious to recover the ball and shield the defense. Duo might play to earn United their first points at Old Trafford this season and ease the nerves. Nemanja Matic though has been absent since being substituted at half time in the 1-6 hammering by Spurs. In form Marcus Rashford will lead the line instead of suspended Anthony Martial with Edinson Cavani coming on for his debut. Juan Mata and Daniel James or Mason Greenwood might start on either side of Rashford. Greenwood will be included after missing two matches against Newcastle and PSG as Solskjaer rightly defended his player amid rumours in the press "He's a fantastic boy to work with. He's never, ever late for training. He's never a problem when he's at the training ground. He's always on time. We've got photographers outside the training ground every day so they can see he's on time every day. He's got a good family behind him, he's got a good background in the academy and he's a good trainer. He trains really well. I've seen some ex-United players talking about him and they don't know what they're talking about. That's something we have to deal with. Many other players at United have had that."

Busy boy Bruno Fernandes can be made an option from the bench with the next Champions' League match at home to RB Leipzig in mind, giving Paul Pogba the chance to get more playing time after his excellent assist holding on the ball and inviting Rashford to shoot the winner against PSG. Donny van de Beek will definitely come on as a substitute as he has done in most matches so far.

Lineup: de Gea(GK), Wan-Bissaka, Shaw, Lindelof, Maguire, McTominay, Fred, Pogba, Mata, Rashford, Greenwood.

Cannot afford to lose in the toughest group on return to Champions' League

Manchester United finished 3rd surprising everyone to qualify for Champions' League only to be drawn against last years finalist's Paris St Germain and semi-finalist's Red Bull Leipzig in the toughest draw of the group stages. They start their campaign against PSG in Paris where they memorably came back from first leg loss of 0-2 to win 3-1 and progress on away goals rule after Marcus Rashford converted the penalty which could have been Romelu Lukaku's hat-trick. 18 months later both teams have changed a lot and its the group stage not the knock-out yet due to involvement of three top teams in the group every point counts.

PSG will certainly want to erase that memory with a solid display befitting the second best team in Europe. They will be without a few players like Icardi, Verratti, Paredes, Kehrer and Bernat yet the threat of Kylian Mbappe heir to Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar will be enough to beat the best of teams. PSG after a shaky start to the season have won five on the trot scoring 16 goals. United could face two of their ex-players in Angel di Maria and favourite Ander Herrera. New signings Rafinha Alcantara from Barcelona and Danilo from Porto are available as are Gueye, Draxler and captain Marquinhos.

United will be without captain Harry Maguire who hasn't travelled just like Mason Greenwood, Eric Bailly and Edinson Cavani. Victor Lindelof might have Axel Tuanzebe and Luke Shaw partnering him in what looks like a 5 man defense, meaning new signing left back Alex Telles might make his debut and Wan-Bissaka in the right back role. Nemanja Matic playing alongside Scott McTominay in midfield and behind Bruno Fernandes. Martial up top with Rashford on the left cutting in. Much improved David de Gea might continue in goal ahead of Dean Henderson. Last time in Paris Pogba spoke of his wish to play for Real Madrid after he contributed to two goals for the opposition in the 1-6 loss to Spurs that no longer makes him an automatic starter tonight, while Parisian Ander Herrera still speaks eloquently of his love for Manchester United wanting to say goodbye to fans, contrast is stark and real.

Interestingly the announcement of Bruno Fernandes to lead the side took place during the press conference when Solskjaer said "The captain sits next to me. Bruno will captain the team tomorrow." to which Fernandes responded "I was not expecting this. I know the same time as you." Why? Did Solskjaer needed to show his faith in Fernandes after supposed reaction to being thrashed by Tottenham? Having captained Sporting this role comes naturally to Fernandes, but hopefully Rashford was taken in confidence beforehand who speaks first to fans after every bad display including the loss to Spurs, had led United against City in the league cup semi-final loss, and was spoken as future leader by everyone for his drive to help disadvantaged children.

First match of the group stages should be viewed by most teams in the Champions' League as an opportunity to get the maximum points as the favourite teams might not be ready yet. PSG usually run riot in the French Ligue 1 winning the title in 7 of last 8 seasons and aiming to win the Champions' League under Qatar Sports Investment headed by ruler of the state. Of United Thomas Tuchel rightly said "They are one of the best teams in transition. We need to keep the ball and impose our own game on them and prevent the counter-attack." Having averted a crisis by winning at Newcastle would ease the pressure significantly on United players who can express themselves more tonight. Starting cautiously and shifting to counter attacking style suits United to nick the points away in Paris, its the home match next in the Premier League the worry.

My favourite memory from that night in Paris was the shot of Marcus Rashford much like Mr. Manchester United Sir Bobby Charlton in his heyday, struck the ball with full power only to fall just ahead of the keeper who now has to adjust to the bounce that increases the chances of ball spilling over, and Lukaku slotted home his second goal.

United need a convincing performance to avert a crisis

Speculation will always be rife about the future of their manager and of their main players if United lose two of their three games let alone get thrashed like they did against Spurs and at home in Old Trafford without fans. It gets another dimension when the very player who was inspirational for turning around the fortunes of the club since his arrival in late January, Bruno Fernandes is substituted at half time when the team is down 1-4. Team failed to buckle up in the second half and conceded two more goals. As the players return to Manchester from their international duty, Fernandes responded to the rumours "What was said is in no way true. I was replaced at half-time, it is true, by technical option. The coach told me that game was almost over and that we would a have lot of games ahead of us. I was not satisfied but said nothing that could harm the group."

Paul Pogba played for United in the first match against Palace despite having just recovered from coronavirus and recently while representing France once again spoke of his desire to play for Real Madrid one day. It seems MUFC had exercised the option to extend Pogba's contract by one further year till June, 2022 which made Solskjaer to say "Paul’s our player and he's going to be here for another two years." Both Fernandes and Pogba are crucial for United to get out of this slump in form. Will Pogba pay the price for his comments and Solskjaer choose Donny van de Beek instead who scored his first international goal for Netherlands against Italy? United were outplayed in the midfield where McTominay and Pogba played in the first match, and Matic and Pogba the next two. Pogba will relish the opportunity to shine against PSG in his native France.

United let in 11 goals in just 3 games that highlights disjointed display through out the squad. It started before the season even began when skipper Harry Maguire was involved in an serious incident in Greece courting arrest. Solskjaer obviously having spoken with his captain decided to start him from the word go. To continue the misery he got sent off in a 0-1 loss to Denmark at Wembley this Thursday. Maguire served United well last season playing in all 38 league matches with David de Gea to concede just 36 goals. Eric Bailly was brought into the starting XI to partner Maguire against Spurs on back of his two games in the league cup instead of Victor Lindelof, while Juan Mata was continued to be ignored as an attacker despite two man of the match awards. If Harry Maguire is fit and has not been sent on vacation other than to Greece to take a break and recharge, he is likely to start. Lindelof looks unconventional while tracking back but was effective last season that might get him the nod ahead of Bailly who is quick but not sure about his positional sense.

Anthony Martial is serving his three match suspension and Edinson Cavani is under quarantine which might mean a rare start for Odion Ighalo in the league. Solskjaer is most likely to start Marcus Rashford honored with an MBE or Mason Greenwood in the 20-man short list for Golden Boy award. Solskjaer usually does not drop his main players unless they are injured while at the same time resource management will take centre stage as Champions' League starts next week with an away match to Paris St Germain. Ferguson made five changes to his side after they lost 1-6 to City in Oct, 2011 for the next league match away at Everton including a recall for Phil Jones! The claim to name Fernandes or Rashford as captain instead of Maguire will not be considered. Dean Henderson will not be content in playing just the League Cup and FA Cup, and will want to play more games coupled with the fact that Champions' League might be more demanding, can replace David de Gea this weekend in goal in the Premier League. Alex Telles might be on the bench.

Probable starting XI against Newcastle United might be:
Henderson (GK), Wan-Bissaka, Shaw, Lindelof, Maguire(C), Fred, van de Beek, Fernandes, Mata, Greenwood, Rashford

Board not getting the players that Solskjaer had asked for isn't a surprise nor the excuse for bad performance. United and their local rivals City were the only teams still playing till middle of August in Europe unlike the rest of the league that has had a direct effect on both their standings being 16th and 14th respectively. It calls into question the strategy they employed to counter the lack of recuperation between two seasons and without pre-season to get into optimal physical conditioning. City have had a tougher set of fixtures than United having to face Wolves(A), Leicester(H) and Leeds(A) while United faced Palace(H), Brighton(A) and Tottenham(H). Both clubs could have asked their players to continue with pre-season instead of vacations, not easy but necessary due to the pandemic, and should have completed their transfer activities early. Both clubs might have erred in their strategy.

An unpleasant news regarding my club from my country in the tweet below: Cannot expect logic to dictate sports as human elements are involved at all levels in playing, administration, officiating and governance. Key is to find the pockets of positivity like policy to hire about 15 of the best youth players from across the continent to strengthen the youth setup, inspired actions of Marcus Rashford and the club during the pandemic, Bruno Fernandes proving to be as inspirational as Cantona and emergence of Mason Greenwood. United finished 3rd reaching three semi-finals in the first full year in charge of Solskjaer and as expected second season will be a lot tougher.

MUFC Board were certainly busy preparing the project 'Big Picture' which was rightly vetoed at the Premier League meeting this week. Meanwhile Gary Neville has backed the alternate proposal by ex-FA chairman David Bernstein for an independent regulator. The unfinished FA Youth Cup of 2019-20 that was halted at semi-final stage will re-start on 30-Oct with all games being played at National Football Centre in St George's Park and finals on 02-Nov. United play Chelsea while Blackburn play City in the two semi-finals. Good luck lads.

Clubs Q1 and full year results of 2019-20  will be delayed from 12-Oct to 21-Oct (United play PSG) when the true extend of loss in revenue due to COVID-19 will be known. Here's hoping Solskjaer turns things around by then to avert a certain crisis. If United lose that will be the worst start to a league campaign since 1986 when Ron Atkinson eventually lost his job to Sir Alex Ferguson who had defied the old firm dominance in Scotland. Will bank on the good away form and are unbeaten since the unexpected loss to Burnley in January before Fernandes joined the club. Solskjaer has big calls to make to set the right tone ahead of very difficult set of matches after today's visit to St James' Park in Paris St Germain, Chelsea, RB Leipzig and Arsenal. Playing Newcastle instead of Chelsea or Arsenal is a blessing to regroup right after international break, for that same reason pressure will also increase exponentially if the result this weekend isn't right. Former United captain Steve Bruce at his boyhood club got his first managerial win last season with a dream debut for Longstaff brothers a sublime moment in sport. Another inspired display from the Gerodie's can wreck havoc in Manucian sails that Solskjaer will be wary about hoping 'Lightning never strikes the same place twice'!

Thrashed 1-6 by Spurs at Old Trafford and let down by the board in transfers

United capitulated to let six goals on account of individual errors from Maguire, Bailly, Shaw, De Gea, Pogba let to collectively implode as a team on the pitch while off it ineptness of the board led to not get their top target in Jadon Sancho. Two home games and United have conceded nine goals and overall 11 in three games of the new season. Its a horror show from a team that only let in miserly 36 goals last season. Team was perhaps a reflection of Solskjaer, totally distracted as it let Luke Shaw speak twice about lack of incoming players that's out of his remit. As highlighted before the game Spurs were rejuvenated due to transfers and were clearly on a roll compared to utter chaos in United's last two performances. 

Bit more on the above answer. Longest serving City coach Les McDowall inspired by the display of Hungarian Nandor Hidegkuti against England dubbed as 'match of the century' used his number 9 Don Revie in the same manner as a deep lying centre-forward to a devastating effect that led to beating United three times in a season. Last of which came in February 1955 when United without their talisman Tommy Taylor and a young side were thrashed 0-5 at Old Trafford that led to the lowest attendance of the season in their next match when Taylor was brought back ahead of time to fare slightly better but still lose 2-4 to eventual runners-up Wolves. United finished 5th in that 1954-55 season due to slow start while Duncan Edwards made his England debut as the youngest ever. Revie won the Footballer of the Year award.

Solskjaer picked Fosu-Mensah, McTominay and James in the opening match against Crystal Palace at home and upon getting out-thought by veteran Roy Hodgson reverted to his trusted XI against Brighton away only to win at the death after having being let off by the seagulls hitting the woodwork five times! Brought in Bailly on back of his two improved performances in the League Cup instead of Lindelof but did nothing to stop the opposing teams bossing the midfield in either of the three games. That was the root cause of the debacle which has clearly not been addressed. During the first half of last season United struggled with Fred and McTominay both playing to win just 4 of 14 matches and a repeat would make the learnings useless. Aging Matic needs an understudy like Declan Rice as both Fred and McTominay can't read the game.

Season after the interruption due to pandemic like the big freeze of 1962 can be more disruptive. Chief reason is the lack of recovery from a grueling season, impeding growth of body and no assimilation of lessons learned due to lack of time afforded for reflection. Inevitably performances suffer impacting responses to even actions that are mundane. United already 16th in the table. Initially the slide starts with poor results backed with rearguard defiance and then that fight caves in due to a hammering like the 1-6 result which can suck all energy. Then chaos rules especially if there isn't a natural number #9 striker of Denis Law's caliber to hold things up. Perhaps United did well to sign Edinson Cavani if he remains injury free.

To challenge for the top two United had to get the following positions filled with 1st team starter: centre-half, left-back, central defensive midfield, right wing, centre-forward i.e., FIVE positions. They got one in Alex Telles for left-back which is not a spine like the centre-half, CDM or forward to have an immediate impact. All depends on the fitness of Edinson Cavani to adapt to fast and physical demands of the Premier League, so need to consider him as a backup unlike Thomas Muller or Jamie Vardy. Facundo Pellistri can be fast tracked to first team after 3 months of adaptation. Donny van de Beek offers Solskjaer to change formations in midfield. At best can rate the transfer window 4 of 10. No points for being prudent to avoid the purchase of injury prone Ousmane Dembele and keeping the option open for Jadon Sancho in next transfer window. No disrespect to Pellistri and Amad they are great prospects but club could have signed Declan Rice or Dayot Upamecano before he renewed his deal with RB Leipzig, instead! Last time club took a bet on 18 year old, he won the Ballon d'Or! #CR7 

This will peg back the prediction for this season from 3rd initially to now 6th position which will increase the pressure on Solskjaer as top four will not be attainable. MUFC board have not had any manager post Sir Alex Ferguson stay for more than 2 years 7 months set by Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer reaches that limit in June, 2021. Ferguson used to say it takes four years for a manager to have his players in most positions to be able to make them play in his vision. Solskjaer has done tremendous job of using all four windows at his disposal to remove the deadwood and trim the squad yet he is still left with Jones and Rojo. Ferguson like Mourinho also finished 2nd in their 2nd season followed by very tough struggle to make the changes count but Ferguson was backed by the board while Mourinho was not in his tiff with Paul Pogba. Board must stick with Solskjaer until his 4th season to make a call not May, 2021 else they will not be able to reap the benefits.


Bruno Fernandes was brought from next season's kitty and initial transfer fee is considered not agents fee or add-on's or salary except for Alexis Sanchez in above calculations. United should have agreed to release ever reliable Sergio Romero to Everton like Ferguson had done in the past with many players. Domestic transfer window closes on 16th October. Some of the names that have been linked with United in the past are centre-half Joe Rodon of Swansea whom Ryan Giggs referred, right winger Ismaila Sarr of Watford and David Brooks of Bournemouth. Loan move for Sarr was rejected by Watford already who wanted guaranteed 25 million if the player was not bought at the end of loan period. Polish International defensive midfielder Krystian Bielik of Derby County can be the outside bet despite returning from ACL injury. Rodon, Sarr or Bielik can marginally improve United not significantly, as most of them are backup but given constant mid-week matches till Christmas might be worth it.

Solskjaer lifted the club from 14th to 3rd but given the spend by other major clubs being higher than United the odds are stacked against him. The positivity of finishing 3rd and all the good community work done since the start of the pandemic has evaporated due to mishandling of the transfers. If club had done these exact transfers by 1st week of September citing the economic challenges due to the pandemic fans would have embraced it, especially when it meant funding to the youth team has continued to rise under 'cultural reboot', most recently Willy Kambwala. Solskjaer meanwhile embarks on his toughest season of his three year contract since signing on Mar, 2019 and genuine long time fans acknowledge to back him ever more.

Amid last minute deals United face rejuvenated Spurs

Tough negotiator Daniel Levy had convinced Jose Mourinho to agree deals for Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Matt Doherty and Joe Hart only under the economic circumstances, but later moved to sign duo from Real Madrid in ex-favourite Gareth Bale and left back Sergio Reguilon followed by a loan move for forward Carlos Vinicius while still being in the hunt for a centre-back like Milan Skriniar. This flurry of activities has been done as English Premier League rivals indulged in a spending spree. That rivals does not include Manchester United! Spurs will play their 4th match inside 10 days when they meet United at Old Trafford having cleared the 3rd round and qualified for Europa League, unlucky to not win against Newcastle due to handball rule and beat Chelsea on penalties in League Cup. Form and momentum is with the lilywhites from North London managed by ex-United manager seeking his first win at Old Trafford as Tottenham coach having won the home game last year but lost the away match due to two inspired Marcus Rashford goals.

In contrast United lost their opening home game to Crystal Palace and in the next match away at Brighton, to borrow Don Davies' words, 'were suffering the fortunes of a chicken having its neck wrung by someone with a mighty strong grasp, but who couldn't quite finish the job'. To be fair without pre-season United players performance has gradually increased. Will Solskjaer change the formation by starting with two CDM's or a diamond against master tactician Mourinho? Still without a natural right winger but now has this luxury of adapting formations thanks to the shrewd purchase of Donny van de Beek. Conceded 5 goals in two games and being hit 5 times on their woodwork reveals a porous shield in midfield that is making defense to leak goals needing urgent attention. Anthony Martial will be repeatedly watching the Harry Kane masterclass of holding up the ball, creating and scoring against Southampton. Son is doubtful and Bale is not yet match fit.

Solskjaer did a stellar job of defending the clubs transfer activity by stating he needs to get more out of the squad by giving chance to greater number of players in the first team. Did not confront the owners like Louis van Gaal or Jose Mourinho. Pressure of playing in the Champions' League will be far greater than far flung exploits to lesser known clubs in Europa League hence the need to add quality depth to the squad. Final weekend before the extended summer transfer window closes has seen United do a panic buy for Edinson Cavani on a free transfer since leaving Paris St Germain in July where he was their all time leading goal scorer. Deal supposedly includes just less than 10 million in agents fee and 10 million annual salary. Fans would think the club could have used this to complete the deals for their primary targets in Jadon Sancho and Alex Telles which they are haggling to come to terms for a long time! 

United bet their entire transfer window success on Jadon Sancho and let it be known to everyone by agreeing personal terms with the player and his agents, and for most part had no alternatives. Selling club set a price that United haven't matched due to the economic implications of the pandemic decreasing the likelihood of reaching the deal unless of course they budge on their stance and pay up. This makes mockery of United. In the last month they have spoken to Ousmane Dembele of Barcelona but pause a while to what the Frenchman might be thinking if he is signed - that he was second choice all along. To complicate matters United seem to have agreed to buy Uruguay's 18 year old winger from Penerol in Facundo Pellistri an exciting and inspired choice, coached by former striker Diego Forlan. In couple of years time he has the chance of becoming the next Ryan Giggs although he reminds more of Michael Platini. This also raises questions of Daniel James' future.

Daniel Levy for years having run the club on tightest of budgets, changed the recruitment structure after selling Dimitar Berbatov to United, converting Tottenham into a top four contenders from mid table club and building a new stadium the envy of everyone in Europe, can do a better job than Ed Woodward who can just concentrate on his specialty of doing commercial deals. Glazers have the right to make every penny count. This change will demonstrate their long term interest in the club and seek an definite upgrade on their current chief executive. Or Ed Woodward hires a competent Director of Football finally. If United fail to get either Sancho or Dembele will they sign Declan Rice or Dayot Upamecano or Harry Kane for Solskjaer finishing 3rd and not just in top four to show the largesse that Joe Lewis and Daniel Levy have at Tottenham? Probably not cause the clubs will not have time to bring in an alternative to fill the gap and that's the major downside of doing deals late, in United case not just one but majority of their deals are pending for final days of this window. Doing transfers in Q2 and not Q1 seem less consequential than last year vs this year for accounting principles. 

Matches between #MUNTOT have been thrilling down the years with United scoring more points against them than any other team in Premier League. Players regaining match fitness and a point to prove especially Anthony Martial will make it another one to remember for sure before the break for International matches. 5th October will be a frenzied day in Manchester as deals get sorted, will they satisfy Solskjaer is not certain. The famous #7 jersey meanwhile remains vacant...

Disparate double over Brighton

Manchester United won twice over Brighton and Hove Albion in two completely contrasting ways; firstly an escape at the final whistle with a penalty to clinch 2-3 away victory, and another a 0-3 win where the second string teams played out in the League Cup. Won both away games and are unbeaten in a run excluding neutral venues (Sevilla in  Europa League) that includes Tranmere Rovers, Man City, Chelsea, Club Brugge, Everton, Derby County, LASK, Tottenham Hotspur, Norwich City, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Leicester City, Luton Town, Brighton & Hove Albion thrice i.e., 16 games! Many of the clubs are modest but aids the cause to increase confidence in a young side whose average age is the lowest in the Premier League.

League match at Brighton had Solskjaer pick his trusted XI that won him most of matches at the end of last season. That first team was torn to shreds by Seagulls who hit the woodwork five times! Both United full backs were barraged relentlessly, Matic alone unable to stem the tide overwhelmed by an additional midfielder in the opposing ranks who played with three at the back, 18 shots on goal vs only 7 for United, and two fine saves from David de Gea. United had two goals rightly ruled offside. VAR got all decisions right though. Lamptey won a penalty when Fernandes fouled him and Maupay sent a 'panenka' over de Gea, Matic pull back to oncoming Maguire led to Dunk scoring an own goal, Fernandes superb through ball down the left led Rashford to race ahead and beat scores of their defenders to score a superb goal the 10,000th United history, March who all day had a free run on the far post headed the equalizer in the injury time before a Maguire header from a Fernandes cross led to Maupay putting his hands up that led to Fernandes scoring a crucial penalty. Solskjaer rightly said “We know we're not fit yet... We’ll get there but the reaction was brilliant to both goals. We didn’t play before the first goal and that’s something we need to address. The reaction to the last one as well was great. You can’t sum it up at all really. Emotions, drama. We got away with one, to be fair. I have to say.”  

 

Juan Mata continued his fine run in the League Cup with second consecutive Man of the Match performance as the second string XI won 3-0. Eric Bailly had a good game with Victor Lindelof in the middle of the defense. Diogo Dalot though looked rusty. Goals from McTominay, Mata and Pogba via huge deflection. Face Everton at Goodison Park on 21 December in the quarterfinals.

Champions' League draw has United in the H group with last years finalist PSG, semi-finalist RB Leipzig and Istanbul Basaksehir.

As for transfers outgoing Andreas Pereira on loan with buy option to Lazio has been completed. Talks with Roma for Chris Smalling underway. Dalot and Fosu-Mensah might move with a few clubs enquiring. No news for Jones, Rojo, Romero, Lingard. No breakthrough in talks with Porto for Brazilian left-back Alex Telles yet. As consistently reported on the Transfer Window podcast United are in talks with Barcelona for Frenchman Ousmane Dembele to join on loan. His injury record is terrible missing 80 matches for Barcelona in three seasons. That's a red flag! His value has dropped from 105 to 56 million consequently but the Catalans insist he is still worth 100 million. That makes paying every penny for Jadon Sancho worthwhile: thorough professional athlete, next best stats to Lionel Messi and England international. Famous #7 #MUFC jersey is eagerly waiting. The 12th October conference call for annual and Q1 financial results might necessitate a deal and agony for fans through out the transfer window that generated millions in traffic on social media platforms the highlight! 

Ten crucial days off and on the pitch

Manchester United have the biggest stadium in the English Premier League 76,000 seater Old Trafford and with matches since restart for last quarter of the season being played without fans they lost 5.5 million pounds per home game. Over the course of the season that's 111 million pounds and 18% of clubs overall income. Broadcasting revenues constitutes 38% as per 2019-20 figures and the rest 44% comes from commercial deals wherein the Champions' League qualification has meant United do not lose out on adidas clause and retain 20 million pounds instead. Worst case loss of revenue this fiscal year July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021 could be 111 million of match day receipts plus loss of broadcast revenue of 80 million plus loss of revenue from commercial that includes cancellation of lucrative pre-season tour, suspension of tour of Old Trafford and Museum, and loss in shirt sales, all in all its a massive loss of over 200 million i.e., a third of total revenue (627 million in 2019) wiped out!

Loss in last two quarters Q3, Q4 of 2019-20 season might be the sum of 60.5 million from 9 matches in EPL and 2 in Europa League plus 20 million returned to broadcasters already plus about 9 million to nullify Alexis Sanchez's contract i.e., 89.5 million minimum. For Q3 of 2019-20 (01Jan to 31Mar) club had already announced a loss of 28.5 million with net debt increasing to 429 million which was 127 million more compared to previous year affected by pandemic and USD-GBP exchange rate. In the end of May club secured 140 million in revolving credit facility for reasons stated as player transfers and other expenditures but as it turned out they paid 9 cents a share dividend on 3rd of June! If fans are not allowed till March a year from the start of pandemic, player salaries might be impacted as player wages account for about 50% of revenue discounting 3% minimum of Sanchez's astronomical wage bill. United had shown 307 million in cash though as of June, 2019 which can cushion the blow. Q4 and 2019-20 full year results and earnings report conference call has been postponed to October from last week of September.

By the end of the year net debt might reach levels of 660 million which was the case when the Glazers did the leveraged buy out of the club in 2005 and might put MUFC back in the market for Saudi's to try takeover again. Manchester United was mostly debt free from 1931 when James W Gibson stepped in to help the club and remained so till 2005, consequently eyed by every businessman during that time from Louis Edwards to Michael Knighton and Rupert Murdoch via BskyB. David Conn in the Guardian published in 4th October, 2018 said that Glazers via dividends, executive pay to directors, share sale have taken more than 1 Billion out of the club while Man City's owners have put more than 1 Billion into theirs, gulf between two local Manchester rivals is greater than 2 Billion. Pandemic has put the redevelopment of Old Trafford on hold which was long overdue. At a valuation of over 4 Billion there are indeed very few takers. The $559m shirt deal with Chevrolet and training kit deal with Aon expire at the end of this year and a new deal with new sponsors needs to be struck.

With an uncertain and unpredictable future this season it will not be easy to spend 108 million pounds on a single player. United had two scenario's: Jadon Sancho will only be signed in the last week of transfer window to save paying his huge wages till the last minute if Dortmund agree to slightly reduced fee with installments spread over few years OR pursuing cheaper alternatives early in window. They chose the former but fans are getting nervy if Dortmund decline and United do not sign any alternatives like the chase for Raphael Varane under Jose Mourinho. Faith in clubs transfer process has deteriorated steadily since the last years of Ferguson when very few deals were done due to 'lack of value' and later club pursued the strategy of doing transfers with big agents post Ferguson that resulted in most of the talks being in the public domain via leaks to pent up the price. The change in recruitment under Solskjaer is noticeable but much still needs to be done in scouting. When was the last time they signed a player who was tracked for a good number of years and signed without paying a hefty fee without any delay?

They hired Neil Ashton for PR last January and who till the end of last season had done a good job especially while the club was supporting local communities affected due to the pandemic. It isn't as though the club are complaining about the negative sentiments from most of its 1.1 billion fans on lack of transfer activity. Instead this #MUFC hashtag remains relevant throughout the transfer window and reaches a crescendo when the player is actually signed up. This sounds deliberate of how business imperative forces a footballing decision to be delayed in order to maximize social media and online traffic. Both Solskjaer and Ashton haven't been able to change this yet!

Manchester Evening News rightly points out that United deal for Sancho was always planned in the last week of transfer window i.e., the first week of October in order for it to be impacting the financial reporting of Q2(01Oct to 31Dec). Unless player's and agent's terms are agreed in advance its not possible for deal of this size to be concluded within four days. Does that hold good for Alex Telles or Dayot Upamecano? No and Yes due to the size of the transfer fee. Club are in talks to sell Chris Smalling for 18 million while Sergio Romero has not yet returned who is unlikely to play for Solskjaer again after being dropped for the Europa League Cup semifinal against Sevilla. Rojo, Jones, Lingard and Pereira have no concrete offers yet. Two more promising players have gone out on loan - Dylan Levitt to Charlton Athletic and James Garner to Watford who join three other players - Tahith Chong at Werder Bremen, Matej Kovar at Swindon Town and Joel Pereira at Huddersfield Town.

United won 3-0 away at Kenilworth Road against Luton Town with a Mata converted penalty won by industrious Brandon Williams, Greenwood assist for Rashford to get back in form and finally Rashford assist for Greenwood. Matic and Fred both started to provide cover for battered defense to not lose confidence while giving a platform for new signing Donny van de Beek to make his first full competitive start. That protection in front enabled Eric Bailly to provide a sound display alongside Harry Maguire including a goal line clearance and Solskjaer might retain the duo against Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday. Jesse Lingard played full 90 minutes with good link play only final shot was missing. Dean Henderson made his senior United debut with a stunning save to deny Hatters an equalizer and this made David de Gea to say "I feel the best I've felt in my career" before the match on Saturday. Solskjaer with that win has taken his tally to 50 wins in 92 games as United manager just behind Ernest Mangnall and Jose Mourinho!

After the restart last season United played a weakened BHAFC team that were aiming for survival which will not be the case on Saturday especially after they beat NUFC 3-0 away a fantastic result. Last time United lost their opening two games in English Premier League was in 1992-93 when they went on to win their first league title in 26 years! Solskjaer has his priority set right after an abysmal defeat on the opening game of this season against Crystal Palace "My focus is solely on the game and I can’t be thinking any other way. We need three points in this game.” Probable XI: De Gea, Wan Bissaka, Shaw, Maguire, Bailly, Fred, van de Beek, Fernandes, Greenwood, Martial, Rashford.

United will play the Seagulls again in the League Cup round of 16 on 30-Sep. 04th October they welcome back Jose Mourinho's Tottenham to Old Trafford before the International break with Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal to follow next. Tough fixtures in October also adds to the pressure on getting the away win at Brighton today.

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